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Developing Crisis in the Developing World, Part 2 25 Aug 2013 | 02:45 am
One of the reasons that the developed world seems relatively stable while our debt, currency creation and unfunded liabilities go crazy is that we have a safety valve. When the Fed or ECB or Bank of J...
Back to the Future, Part 1: Prediction Fatigue 15 Aug 2013 | 04:23 am
It’s around 10:00 on a Friday night in early 2005. I’m shooting pool in a local bar with Hunter, a math professor at the local university who had just come into a big inheritance and was tossing it ar...
The Bubble is Back, Part 1: “A Sense of Complacency” 13 Aug 2013 | 01:32 am
Just when you think it can’t get any stranger, the U.S. economy – measured by the declining number of full-time jobs, lower household incomes and below target inflation rate – seems to be weakening, w...
Are Banks Finally Ready To Start Lending? 9 Aug 2013 | 01:33 am
In normal times, today’s combination of record low interest rates and massive infusions of capital into the banking system would ignite the mother of all expansions. That it hasn’t has confused the ec...
Why QE Can Never End 1 Aug 2013 | 01:02 am
The Fed just made an announcement that the markets liked: Fed stays on track with bond buying, for now WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday the economy continues to recover bu...
Did Wall Street Miss A Bribe Payment? 31 Jul 2013 | 12:57 am
It’s hard to know which aspect of today’s world future historians will find most appalling. But the fact that during the greatest financial crime spree ever, not a single major Wall Street executive h...
Bombs Going Off One Level Down 21 Jul 2013 | 05:40 am
It’s been a strange couple of weeks. US stocks are not far from all-time records, both nominally and adjusted for inflation. Home prices are soaring – up 33% y-o-y in the Bay Area, to take just one of...
Oops, We Did It Again: Banks and Houses Dominate the Recovery 15 Jul 2013 | 10:28 pm
One of the many, many lessons we should have learned from the 2009 crash is that an economy driven by inherently-unstable – and completely unproductive – things like rising home prices and bank tradin...
Variable Rate World, Part 3: “This Horror Show Is Just the Beginning” 12 Jul 2013 | 12:53 am
It’s easy to assert that big banks and other holders of long-term bonds will be crushed by rising interest rates, but it’s tough to calculate just how bad the carnage will be and how quickly it will c...
Variable Rate World, Part 2: Mortgage REITs Get Crushed 10 Jul 2013 | 10:56 pm
Mortgage REITs are companies that borrow money to buy mortgage backed securities (MBS) and earn the spread between their cost of funds and the yield on their MBS. When interest rates are going down an...
