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20 optimistic charts 27 Aug 2013 | 09:55 am
I continue to believe that the market is dominated by pessimism rather than optimism. Or, if you will, that there is a shortage of optimism. What follows are some 20 or so charts, in random order, wh...
Stocks are up because the economy continues to expand 26 Aug 2013 | 09:25 pm
Capital goods orders are notoriously volatile from month to month, so I have long preferred to look at a 3-month moving average of the series, which is shown in the chart above. July orders for this p...
Equity valuation exercises 22 Aug 2013 | 07:38 am
Equity valuation is more art than science, since there are methods which produce a variety of results (e.g., stocks today are variously considered either very expensive, fairly valued, or very cheap),...
Three cheers for higher yields 19 Aug 2013 | 09:45 pm
10-yr Treasury yields are up 130 bps from their all-time lows, and that's absolutely great news. Yields are not up because the market is worried about a tapering of Quantitative Easing. Yields are up ...
Industrial production slows in the US, picks up in Europe 16 Aug 2013 | 01:59 am
U.S. industrial production was a bit disappointing in July, and from the chart above we can see that production growth has been slowing for the past few months. But that slowing is more than offset, f...
Claims continue to fall, but the market continues to worry for naught 16 Aug 2013 | 01:40 am
Weekly claims for unemployment continue to fall, now reaching a new post-recession low of 320K, which by the way was less than the expected 335K (the chart above shows the 4-week moving average). Can...
Tracking the demand for safe assets 16 Aug 2013 | 01:03 am
Caution, risk aversion, and a lack of confidence have characterized much of the current recovery. So it is not surprising that the demand for money and safe assets has been strong, just as the public'...
Why QE was a successful failure 14 Aug 2013 | 04:14 am
Taken at face value, the most massive expansion of a major central bank's balance sheet in history, in which almost $2.5 trillion was added to the U.S. monetary base for the purpose of artificially lo...
Federal budget progress continues 13 Aug 2013 | 12:35 am
In today's WSJ, Steve Moore echoes my thoughts from last month on the incredible shrinking federal budget deficit. Yes, "The biggest underreported story out of Washington this year is ... the federal ...
Claims keep declining 8 Aug 2013 | 10:17 pm
First-time claims for unemployment came in as expected, but the more important news is that they continue to trend lower. This chart shows the long-term trend of claims (using their 4-week moving ave...
